CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-04-18T02:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-04-18T02:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30128/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen to the NE in all coronagraphs. The source is likely a massive dimming region (spanning approximately E35->E15 and S10->N12) following some weak field line and loop breaking (observed across wavelengths SDO AIA 131/171/193/211) from AR 3645, which begins around 2024-04-17T22:09Z and dims until about 2024-04-18T02:09Z. A slow rise in x-ray flux is noted in SDO AIA 131 and GOES real-time x-ray flux over this time but no "flare" occurs. This dimming notably begins well before the start time giving some lower confidence, but this region gave an excellent visual fit in SWPC_CAT during the measurement process compared to other longitudes or Plane-Of-Sky. A wider front to the north of this one emerging at 2024-04-18T04:12Z is likely from this same eruption, measuring 230 km/s as a Plane-Of-Sky.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-21T17:30Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 42.93 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-04-19T22:34Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement